Who Do I Start? Week 2: Top Laners

Methodology for “projected points”:

1) Get the player’s Week 1 Points Per Game (PPG)
2) Convert PPG to Adjusted Points Per Game (aPPG), by adjusting for opponents (increase if against stronger opponents, decrease if against weaker)
3) Convert aPPG to Projected Points by adjusting aPPG for next week’s opponents (increase if against weaker opponents, decrease if against stronger)

 

Rankings

SHCMimer2014Spring2 EG_Innox_S4 S3_tsmdyrus_2

1) Mimer (SHC, 69.92 points last week, 68.3 projected points) vs CW/Gambit
2) Innox (EG, 62.32 points last week, 45.79 projected points) vs coL/Curse
3) Dyrus (TSM, 83.93 points last week, 38.72 projected points) vs CLG/Dignitas

At this point you’re probably looking at me like I’m crazy and will refuse to read anything I write ever again. Hear me out though. Mimer and Innox both have the benefit of playing against EXTREMELY soft schedules. CW/Gambit are the two teams that give up the most points BY FAR in fantasy LCS. coL/Curse are the same in NA. Mimer also put up 69 points against MIL, ROC, [A], and SK. None of those teams gave up big points to anyone else. Mimer knows how to score in fantasy, and given a much softer schedule, expect him to do great. Meanwhile, Dyrus scored big in week 1, even though outside of C9, all the matchups were fairly weak. and CLG and Dignitas aren’t as weak matchups as they appear, so he can still score big for you in week 2.

 
 
Lmq_ackerman MKev1n2014Spring

4) Kev1n (Millenium, 81.1 points last week, 25.7 projected points) vs Alliance/Fnatic
5) Quas (Curse, 50.11 points last week, 25.54 projected points) vs EG/C9
6) Youngbuck (CW, 44.96 points last week, 27.17 projected points) vs SHC/ROCCA4
7) Westrice (coL, 27.58 points last week, 25.47 projected points) vs EG/CLG
8) ackerman (LMQ, 82.5 points last week, 24.02 projected points) vs Dignitas/C9
9) Seraph (CLG, 37.76 points last week, 25.18 projected points) vs TSM/coL

Everyone here is fairly interchangable, since the numbers rankings are so close. When in doubt, go with your gut here. Kev1n and Quas had solid weeks last week, but both have a tough schedule here. Youngbuck and Westrice are up so high because both have a much softer schedule this week than last. Seraph scored low, but has a much easier schedule, and Ackerman scored big, but faces real tests in Dignitas and Cloud 9 this week.

Basically, everyone here falls under one of two categories: 1) Great Week 1, Tough Week 2, or 2) Tough Week 1, Easy Week 2. I would lean towards Category 1 slightly, and hope the momentum from Week 1 carries over.

 
 
S3_sOAZS3_c9balls_2

10) Wickd (Alliance, 74.72 points last week, 23.36 projected points) vs SK/Millenium
12) fredy122 (SK, 74.07 points last week, 22.86 projected points) vs ROCCAT/Alliance
11) Balls (C9, 53.85 points last week, 22.87 projected points) vs Curse/LMQ
16) ZionSpartan (Dignitas, 51.34 points last week, 17.71 projected points) vs TSM/LMQ
13) sOAZ (Fnatic, 36.67 points last week, 21.09 projected points) vs Gambit/Millenium

A lot of big names in this last tier. While Fnatic and C9 each won their respective region, their top laners haven’t been putting up big points. Fredy and Wickd came off strong week 1s, but both have extremely low scoring matchups this week, and owners should be wary. Even though Dignitas won big in week 1, Zion has the misfortune of going against TSM and LMQ, two of the toughest matchups in NA LCS.

 
 
439px-ROCCATXaxus S3_Darien

15) Darien (Gambit, 28.67 points last week, 20.58 projected points) vs SHC/Fnatic
16) Xaxus (Roccat, 39.16 points last week, 19.8 projected points) vs SK/CW

Nice phrasing: Both of their teams are coming off weak performances. Gambit looks like a different team without Alex Ich holding down the midlane, and Roccat never puts up high fantasy points, even when they were winning last season.
Honest Phrasing: If you start either of these two, you deserve to lose.

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